CLMT

NEUTRALEarnings

Calumet, Inc

2026-02-25

Price

$29.59

+1.16%

Score4.5Watchlist

Signals4/8 DNA0/13 Act · 1/4 Risk

SentimentNEUTRALScore: 8

Volume0.7xvs 20d avg

Analysis

CLMT is staging a high-conviction breakout into its February 27 earnings print, driven by a 'Perfect Stack' of technicals and a fresh BofA price target hike to $33 (Feb 23). The structural catalyst is the successful January 2026 debt refinancing, which pushed maturities to 2031 and removed near-term credit overhangs, allowing the market to re-rate the Montana Renewables growth story. In a RISK_ON regime, this relative strength (+34.2% vs SPY) signals institutional absorption of the 'turnaround' thesis before the broader retail crowd reacts to the print.

Fired Signals

SURGEALPHA MALEGOLDEN CROSSPERFECT STACKEXTENSION

Key Takeaways

**The Setup:** A 'Perfect Stack' signal directly ahead of earnings indicates insiders are positioning for a beat-and-raise, likely tied to MaxSAF expansion milestones.
**The Catalyst:** BofA's upgrade to $33 and the completion of the $405M notes offering (Jan '26) have cleared the runway for a valuation reset.
**The Risk:** With 48% annualized volatility and the stock at 52-week highs, a 'sell-the-news' reaction on Friday is the primary threat if guidance is merely inline.

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