CLMT

NEUTRALEarnings

Calumet, Inc

2026-02-27

Price

$26.96

-10.79%

Score1.0Noise

Signals2/8 DNA0/13 Act · 0/4 Risk

SentimentNEUTRALScore: -6

Volume1.9xvs 20d avg

Analysis

CLMT plummeted ~11% following a Q4 2025 earnings miss where revenue ($1.04B) and EPS (-$0.43) fell short of estimates, primarily driven by unexpected negative EBITDA at its growth engine, Montana Renewables. Despite a 'Perfect Stack' technical setup entering the print, the RISK_OFF macro backdrop is amplifying the punishment for operational execution errors, overriding the positive news of $220M in debt reduction. The high-volume sell-off (1.9x avg) signals an immediate repricing of growth expectations, turning a breakout chart into a critical support test.

Fired Signals

GOLDEN CROSSPERFECT STACK

Key Takeaways

**Growth Engine Sputtering:** The core bullish thesis relies on Montana Renewables (MRL); its swing to negative EBITDA (-$5.4M) is a structural red flag that outweighs legacy refining beats.
**Deleveraging Shield:** The successful $220M debt reduction prevents a total collapse, putting a fundamental floor under the price if cash flow guidance remains stable.
**Trend Defense:** The stock is now testing the validity of its recent breakout; holding above the $22.41 support level is mandatory to keep the long-term uptrend alive.

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