CLMT

NEUTRALMacro

Calumet, Inc

2026-03-06

Price

$30.40

+0.36%

Score1.5Noise

Signals3/8 DNA0/13 Act · 4/4 Risk

SentimentNEUTRALScore: 8

Volume1.4xvs 20d avg

Analysis

Calumet (CLMT) is demonstrating textbook High-Conviction Price Discovery, completely absorbing a recent Q4 earnings EPS miss to surge to new 52-week highs. This massive relative outperformance (+24.8% vs SPY) is fundamentally driven by the closure of a $1.44 billion DOE loan for its Montana Renewables facility and record-breaking March sales in its TruFuel division. Crucially, the current RISK_OFF geopolitical regime—sparked by the US-Iran conflict and disrupted global fuel supplies—has transformed CLMT's domestic refining and renewable assets into a highly sought-after safe haven, validating the stock's SURGE and PERFECT_STACK technical signals.

Fired Signals

SURGEGOLDEN CROSSPERFECT STACKWEAK FINISHEXTENSIONDISTRIBUTIONCHURNING

Key Takeaways

Actionable Thesis: Capitalize on CLMT's breakout momentum as domestic fuel producers catch a structural bid from global supply disruptions and institutional accumulation.
Key Risk: The stock's elevated 63.1% annualized volatility and negative EPS profile leave it vulnerable to rapid technical unwinds if the macro energy trade reverses.
What to Watch: Maintain a strict trailing stop or line-in-the-sand at the $25.17 support level while monitoring execution milestones for the Montana Renewables MaxSAF expansion.

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