RDW

Redwire CorporationDEFENSE

Real policy. Real catalysts. Policy creates winners before Wall Street notices. We find them first.

Current Price

$14.06

Market Cap

N/A

Scanner Status

Noisepolicy-driven, not technical

Status

VerifiedTIER_1_14DCONTRACT

Winner Score

90 /100

Policy-catalyst strength, 0–100

Investment Thesis

Secured a spot on the Missile Defense Agency's massive $151 billion SHIELD contract.

Provides long-term revenue visibility that completely overshadows its current $2.8 billion market capitalization.

Risk-on regime heavily rewards high-beta momentum plays with massive policy-driven contract catalysts.

Redwire offers the most explosive asymmetry among the finalists, pairing a massive $151B multi-vendor IDIQ catalyst with a sub-$3B market cap. In the current RISK_ON regime where momentum and high-beta names are aggressively bid, RDW's strong 1-month return signals institutional accumulation while still leaving ample runway well below its 52-week high.

Policy Rationale

Inclusion in the Missile Defense Agency's $151 billion SHIELD IDIQ provides a structural, long-term federal funding tailwind.

Technical Setup

Strong +25.31% 1-month momentum confirms aggressive accumulation while remaining 36.81% below its 52-week high.

Key Risks

–Multi-vendor IDIQ structure means actual task order revenue may be lower than the ceiling

–High beta exposes the stock to sharp pullbacks if market regime shifts to RISK_OFF

Competitive Field — considered, not selected

VVX

While securing a $25B DoD IDIQ is significant, its momentum (+1.34% 1mo) lags RDW significantly in a momentum-driven RISK_ON regime.

TPC

Negative 1-month momentum (-5.81%) makes it a poor fit for the current aggressive RISK_ON, high-beta market regime.

Recent Performance History

70 total picks · 46% win (7d) · 53% win (30d) · Full history →

Date	Ticker	Theme	Entry	Last	Gain/Loss	7d	30d	60d
2026-05-14	PSN	ENERGY	$51.15	$50.38	-1.51%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-05-13	RDW	SPACE	$11.46	$14.06	+22.69%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-05-12	TPC	ENERGY	$82.69	$79.49	-3.87%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-05-11	RDW	SPACE	$12.16	$14.06	+15.63%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-05-08	TPC	INFRA	$82.85	$79.49	-4.06%	-4.06%	N/A	N/A
2026-05-07	GVA	INFRA	$141.23	$138.55	-1.90%	-0.21%	N/A	N/A
2026-05-06	LUNR	SPACE	$26.33	$33.89	+28.71%	+35.51%	N/A	N/A
2026-05-04	LUNR	SPACE	$25.35	$33.89	+33.69%	+27.89%	N/A	N/A
2026-05-01	LUNR	SPACE	$25.62	$33.89	+32.28%	+13.08%	N/A	N/A
2026-04-30	DCO	DEFENSE	$141.93	$143.75	+1.28%	-2.95%	N/A	N/A
2026-04-29	TPC	INFRA	$86.04	$79.49	-7.61%	+11.66%	N/A	N/A
2026-04-28	ALMU	SPACE	$18.91	$24.86	+31.46%	+44.76%	N/A	N/A
2026-04-27	GEO	BORDER	$18.67	$22.92	+22.76%	-0.48%	N/A	N/A
2026-04-24	GEO	BORDER	$18.83	$22.92	+21.72%	-0.42%	N/A	N/A
2026-04-23	GEO	BORDER	$18.48	$22.92	+24.03%	+0.16%	N/A	N/A

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Schema v1.0 | Pipeline v1.2.0