Policy Pick · September 10, 2026
As of close 2026-09-10

GEO

Geo Group Inc (The) REITBORDER

Real policy. Real catalysts. Policy creates winners before Wall Street notices. We find them first.

Current Price
N/A
Market Cap
N/A
Scanner Status
Policypolicy-driven, not technical
Status
VerifiedTIER_1_14DCONTRACT
Winner Score
48 /100
Policy-catalyst strength, 0–100

Investment Thesis

1

Secured a massive $528M DHS contract for essential detention and facility management services

2

The award represents nearly 13 percent of market cap, providing highly visible revenue

3

Trading just five percent below highs, showing strong momentum in a RISK_ON regime

GEO offers the most material catalyst among the finalists, with a $528M DHS award that significantly moves the needle against its $4.1B market cap. While operating in a politically sensitive sector, its role as a critical infrastructure enabler for federal agencies provides a durable, cash-generating moat.

Policy Rationale

The $528M DHS contract confirms ongoing federal reliance on private facility management for immigration enforcement and border security.

Technical Setup

Trading just 5.3% below its 52-week high, GEO exhibits strong relative strength and momentum in the current RISK_ON regime.

Key Risks
Political and regulatory headline risk
Contract verification lag in federal databases
Competitive Field — considered, not selected
GVA

The $23.7M contract is too small (0.5% of market cap) to drive significant asymmetric upside.

KTOS

Recent picks have locked multiple misses, and the $35M award is immaterial against its $8.8B market cap.

Recent Performance History

137 total picks · 45% win (7d) · 52% win (30d) · 42% beat SPY (7d) · Full history →
DateTickerThemeEntryLastGain/Loss7d30d60d
2026-09-09CACIBORDER$606.85$624.01+2.83%N/AN/AN/A
2026-09-08AGXENERGY$436.78$396.33-9.26%N/AN/AN/A
2026-09-04BWXTENERGY$157.59$152.49-3.24%N/AN/AN/A
2026-09-03BWXTENERGY$160.25$152.49-4.84%-4.84%N/AN/A
2026-09-02BWXTENERGY$155.67$152.49-2.04%+0.67%N/AN/A
2026-09-01BWXTENERGY$161.54$152.49-5.60%-0.70%N/AN/A
2026-08-31BWXTENERGY$152.29$152.49+0.13%+5.33%N/AN/A
2026-08-28HDSNRESHORING$5.43$5.35-1.47%-1.47%N/AN/A
2026-08-26CLFRESHORING$11.54$11.83+2.51%+7.63%N/AN/A
2026-08-21CXWBORDER$34.01$34.41+1.18%-0.59%N/AN/A
2026-08-20XEENERGY$18.29N/A+0.00%N/AN/AN/A
2026-08-19CXWBORDER$31.99$34.41+7.56%+6.25%N/AN/A
2026-08-17KTOSDEFENSE$63.29$46.98-25.77%-16.15%N/AN/A
2026-08-14KTOSDEFENSE$64.58$46.98-27.25%-13.01%N/AN/A
2026-08-13KTOSDEFENSE$62.79$46.98-25.18%-10.53%N/AN/A
Schema v1.0 | Pipeline v1.2.0