MPC

NEUTRALMacro

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

2026-09-14

Price

$396.45

+1.03%

This is the 2026-09-14 snapshot — the signals and analysis for MPC as of this single trading day.

View full MPC research hub →

Score2.2Noise

Signals3/8 DNA0/13 Act · 3/4 Risk

SentimentNEUTRALScore: 9

Volume1.7xvs 20d avg

Analysis

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is undergoing high-conviction price discovery as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive oil above $100 per barrel and push refining crack spreads past a historic $60 per barrel. The stock's technical setup—highlighted by a Perfect Stack, Market Leader signal, and urgent 1.7x relative volume—perfectly confirms the fundamental windfall of these blowout margins. Operating within a heavily liquid RISK_ON regime, institutional capital is aggressively absorbing MPC as both a momentum leader and a geopolitical hedge, validated by a wave of massive analyst price target upgrades in the last 48 hours.

Fired Signals

GOLDEN CROSSMARKET LEADERPERFECT STACKWEAK FINISHEXTENSIONDISTRIBUTION

Key Takeaways

Actionable Thesis: Go long on the breakout as MPC benefits from a structural macro tailwind, supported by urgent volume and extreme relative strength (+31.9% vs SPY).
Key Risk: A sudden geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East could rapidly compress crack spreads and trigger aggressive profit-taking.
What to Watch: Monitor the $297.75 line-in-the-sand support and track global diesel supply metrics leading into Q3 earnings.

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