ORN

Orion Group Holdings, Inc.INFRA

Real policy. Real catalysts. Policy creates winners before Wall Street notices. We find them first.

Current Price

N/A

Market Cap

N/A

Scanner Status

Policypolicy-driven, not technical

Status

VerifiedTIER_1_14DCONTRACT

Winner Score

67 /100

Policy-catalyst strength, 0–100

Investment Thesis

Secured $250M in new contract awards from the U.S. Army Corps

Award value represents a transformational 67.6 percent of current market capitalization

Trades 47 percent below 52-week high with earnings risk already cleared

Orion Group Holdings presents an exceptional asymmetric setup due to a massive $250M contract award that equals 67.6% of its small $369M market cap. While T-011 warns that heavy infrastructure struggles to generate 7d alpha in RISK_ON regimes, this catalyst is simply too large relative to the company's valuation to be ignored, overriding general sector drag.

Policy Rationale

The $250M in new awards from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers provides immediate, highly material revenue visibility for its marine infrastructure segment.

Technical Setup

Trading 47.6% below its 52-week high with earnings event risk already cleared, the stock has significant room for multiple expansion as the market prices in the backlog.

Key Risks

–Execution risk on large-scale marine projects

–Margin compression from inflationary pressures on materials

Competitive Field — considered, not selected

GEO

While the $1.4B contract is highly material, GEO has been picked repeatedly in recent weeks and has locked severe 7d and 30d misses, indicating momentum exhaustion.

STRL

The catalyst is a standard earnings release rather than a new idiosyncratic policy shift, and it trades near its 52-week high.

Recent Performance History

171 total picks · 44% win (7d) · 46% win (30d) · 42% beat SPY (7d) · Full history →

Date	Ticker	Theme	Entry	Last	Gain/Loss	7d	30d	60d
2026-10-28	RKLB	SPACE	$58.60	$59.10	+0.85%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-10-27	GFS	RESHORING	$48.76	$46.11	-5.43%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-10-26	KTOS	DEFENSE	$38.27	$43.59	+13.90%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-10-23	GEO	BORDER	$26.94	$26.94	+0.00%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2026-10-22	KTOS	DEFENSE	$38.27	$43.59	+13.90%	+13.90%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-21	RKLB	SPACE	$53.67	$59.10	+10.12%	+9.19%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-20	WLDN	ENERGY	$72.72	$77.27	+6.26%	+0.44%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-19	WLDN	ENERGY	$73.57	$77.27	+5.03%	-0.72%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-16	GEO	BORDER	$32.19	$26.94	-16.31%	-16.31%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-15	GFS	RESHORING	$48.76	$46.11	-5.43%	-11.05%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-14	KTOS	DEFENSE	$39.33	$43.59	+10.83%	-1.50%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-13	KTOS	SPACE	$41.62	$43.59	+4.73%	-6.39%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-09	BKSY	SPACE	$20.92	$19.20	-8.22%	-17.21%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-08	GEO	BORDER	$30.79	$26.94	-12.50%	+4.55%	N/A	N/A
2026-10-07	SAIC	BORDER	$126.90	$136.74	+7.75%	+5.05%	N/A	N/A

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Schema v1.0 | Pipeline v1.2.0