GEO
Geo Group Inc (The) REITBORDERReal policy. Real catalysts. Policy creates winners before Wall Street notices. We find them first.
Investment Thesis
Secured a massive $1.5B ten-year management contract for ICE processing facilities
The new award represents nearly forty percent of the total market cap
Down thirteen percent this month, leaving this highly material catalyst completely unpriced
GEO presents the best asymmetric setup due to the sheer materiality of its $1.5B contract, which equates to nearly 40% of its market cap. Despite the broader CAUTION regime and impending earnings, this level of guaranteed long-term federal revenue provides a strong fundamental floor. The stock's recent 13.7% pullback suggests the market has not fully priced in this massive capacity commitment.
The Department of Homeland Security's $1.5B award for the Northwest ICE Processing Center confirms long-term federal reliance on private border enforcement capacity.
Trading 18.7% below its 52-week high after a 13.7% one-month pullback, the stock has room to run as the catalyst is digested.
Recent Performance History
| Date | Ticker | Theme | Entry | Last | Gain/Loss | 7d | 30d | 60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | ORN | INFRA | $8.82 | $8.50 | -3.63% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-29 | ORN | INFRA | $9.11 | $8.50 | -6.70% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-28 | RKLB | SPACE | $58.60 | $52.07 | -11.14% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-27 | GFS | RESHORING | $48.76 | $41.82 | -14.23% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-26 | KTOS | DEFENSE | $38.27 | $40.23 | +5.12% | +5.12% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-23 | GEO | BORDER | $26.94 | $26.94 | +0.00% | +5.86% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-22 | KTOS | DEFENSE | $38.27 | $40.23 | +5.12% | +13.90% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-21 | RKLB | SPACE | $53.67 | $52.07 | -2.98% | +9.19% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-20 | WLDN | ENERGY | $72.72 | $77.27 | +6.26% | +0.44% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-19 | WLDN | ENERGY | $73.57 | $77.27 | +5.03% | -0.72% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-16 | GEO | BORDER | $32.19 | $26.94 | -16.31% | -16.31% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-15 | GFS | RESHORING | $48.76 | $41.82 | -14.23% | -11.05% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-14 | KTOS | DEFENSE | $39.33 | $40.23 | +2.29% | -1.50% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-13 | KTOS | SPACE | $41.62 | $40.23 | -3.34% | -6.39% | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-10-09 | BKSY | SPACE | $20.92 | $16.64 | -20.46% | -17.21% | N/A | N/A |